# Hot Lotto

## 2013 Sizzler Recommendation Analysis

### View the Pre-May 2013 Sizzler Analysis

Recommendation:
Here's Why:
blah blah

Beginning in January 2008, Hot Lotto gives players the opportunity to increase the size of their winnings. By purchasing the Sizzler option for \$1 more, all prizes except the Jackpot will be tripled.

Is this a good value for players? Should the player buy this option? Lottery Power Picks believes that the answers are both Yes and No , depending on the Jackpot size.

For this analysis, LotteryPowerPicks calculated and compared the the payout return values of buying 1 Hot Lotto Ticket against buying 1 ticket with the Sizzler Option for \$2. The higher the return, the better for players.

 Table HL-Siz1 Hot Lotto Summary Money Returned to Players per \$1 Spent Jackpot \$0 \$1,000,000 \$6,977,407 \$15,000,000 1 Ticket \$0.239 \$0.274 \$0.479 \$0.754 w/ Sizzler \$0.359 \$0.376 \$0.479 \$0.616 Breakeven
As Table HL-Siz1 illustrates, the Sizzler Option returns more money to players when theJackpot is less than \$6,977,407. When the Jackpot is greater than this amount, more money is returned to players who buy tickets without the Sizzler Option.

### J = O*(m-2)*c

J = Breakeven Jackpot Amount - Calculated
O = Odds of Winning Jackpot - 29,144,841 given
m = multiplier - 3.0 Fixed
c = constant ( sum( p(i)*prize(i) where i=2,n ) - 0.239 from Table HL-Siz3a

### How These are Calculated

Probability     \$0 Jackpot
Constant Variable 'c'
\$1 Million Jackpot     \$6,977,407 Million
Jackpot Breakeven
\$15 Million Jackpot
 Table HL-Siz2 Hot Lotto Probability Matrix One Ticket Won Probability 5+mb 0.000003% 5 0.000062% 4+mb 0.000721% 4 0.012970% 3+mb 0.029542% 3 0.531758% 2+mb 0.393895% 2 7.090106% 1+mb 1.920237% 1 34.564265% 0+mb 2.918760% 0 52.537682%

 Table HL-Siz3a Hot Lotto \$1 Single Ticket No Sizzler Won Prize Prob Wtd 5+mb 0 \$0.000 5 30,000 \$0.019 4+mb 3,000 \$0.022 4 100 \$0.013 3+mb 50 \$0.015 3 6 \$0.032 2+mb 6 \$0.024 2 \$0.000 1+mb 3 \$0.058 1 \$0.000 0+mb 2 \$0.058 0 \$0.000 Per \$ \$0.239
Constant Variable 'c'

 Table HL-Siz3b Hot Lotto \$1 Single Ticket No Sizzler Won Prize Prob Wtd 5+mb 1,000,000 \$0.091 5 30,000 \$0.019 4+mb 3,000 \$0.022 4 100 \$0.013 3+mb 50 \$0.015 3 6 \$0.032 2+mb 6 \$0.024 2 \$0.000 1+mb 3 \$0.058 1 \$0.000 0+mb 2 \$0.058 0 \$0.000 Per \$ \$0.274

 Table HL-Siz3c Hot Lotto \$1 Single Ticket No Sizzler Won Prize Prob Wtd 5+mb 6,977,407 \$0.239 5 30,000 \$0.019 4+mb 3,000 \$0.022 4 100 \$0.013 3+mb 50 \$0.015 3 6 \$0.032 2+mb 6 \$0.024 2 \$0.000 1+mb 3 \$0.058 1 \$0.000 0+mb 2 \$0.058 0 \$0.000 Per \$ \$0.479
Jackpot Breakeven

 Table HL-Siz3d Hot Lotto \$1 Single Ticket No Sizzler Won Prize Prob Wtd 5+mb 15,000,000 \$0.515 5 30,000 \$0.019 4+mb 3,000 \$0.022 4 100 \$0.013 3+mb 50 \$0.015 3 6 \$0.032 2+mb 6 \$0.024 2 \$0.000 1+mb 3 \$0.058 1 \$0.000 0+mb 2 \$0.058 0 \$0.000 Per \$ \$0.754
With Sizzler Option
 Table HL-Siz4a Hot Lotto \$2 Single Ticket With 3x Sizzler Won Prize Prob Wtd 5+mb 0 \$0.000 5 90,000 \$0.056 4+mb 9,000 \$0.65 4 300 \$0.039 3+mb 150 \$0.044 3 18 \$0.096 2+mb 18 \$0.071 2 \$0.000 1+mb 9 \$0.173 1 \$0.000 0+mb 6 \$0.175 0 \$0.000 Sum \$0.718 Per \$ \$0.359
Constant Variable 'c'

 Table HL-Siz4b Hot Lotto \$2 Single Ticket With 3x Sizzler Won Prize Prob Wtd 5+mb 1,000,000 \$0.091 5 90,000 \$0.056 4+mb 9,000 \$0.65 4 300 \$0.039 3+mb 150 \$0.044 3 18 \$0.096 2+mb 18 \$0.071 2 \$0.000 1+mb 9 \$0.173 1 \$0.000 0+mb 6 \$0.175 0 \$0.000 Sum \$0.753 Per \$ \$0.376

 Table HL-Siz4c Hot Lotto \$2 Single Ticket With 3x Sizzler Won Prize Prob Wtd 5+mb 6,977,407 \$0.239 5 90,000 \$0.056 4+mb 9,000 \$0.65 4 300 \$0.039 3+mb 150 \$0.044 3 18 \$0.096 2+mb 18 \$0.071 2 \$0.000 1+mb 9 \$0.173 1 \$0.000 0+mb 6 \$0.175 0 \$0.000 Sum \$0958 Per \$ \$0.479
Jackpot Breakeven

 Table HL-Siz4d Hot Lotto \$2 Single Ticket With 3x Sizzler Won Prize Prob Wtd 5+mb 15,000,000 \$0.515 5 90,000 \$0.056 4+mb 9,000 \$0.65 4 300 \$0.039 3+mb 150 \$0.044 3 18 \$0.096 2+mb 18 \$0.071 2 \$0.000 1+mb 9 \$0.173 1 \$0.000 0+mb 6 \$0.175 0 \$0.000 Sum \$1.233 Per \$ \$0.616