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Beginning in January 2008, Hot Lotto gives players the opportunity to increase the size of their winnings. By purchasing the Sizzler option for $1 more, all prizes except the Jackpot will be tripled.
Is this a good value for players? Should the player buy this option? Lottery Power Picks believes that the answers are both Yes and No , depending on the Jackpot size.
For this analysis, LotteryPowerPicks calculated and compared the the payout return values of buying 1 Hot Lotto Ticket against buying 1 ticket with the Sizzler Option for $2. The higher the return, the better for players.
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Table HL-Siz1 Hot Lotto Summary
Money Returned to Players per $1 Spent
| | Jackpot | $0 | $1,000,000 | $6,977,407 | $15,000,000
| | 1 Ticket | $0.239 | $0.274 | $0.479 | $0.754
| w/ Sizzler | $0.359 | $0.376 | $0.479 | $0.616
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| Breakeven
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As Table HL-Siz1 illustrates, the Sizzler Option returns more money to players when theJackpot is less than $6,977,407. When the Jackpot is greater than this amount, more money is returned to players who buy tickets without the Sizzler Option.
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Hot Lotto Sizzler Rule
Jackpot < $6,977,407: Buy Sizzler
Jackpot > $6,977,407: Do NOT Buy Sizzler
Introducing the Multiplier Jackpot Breakeven Formula
J = O*(m-2)*c
J = Breakeven Jackpot Amount - Calculated
O = Odds of Winning Jackpot - 29,144,841 given
m = multiplier - 3.0 Fixed
c = constant ( sum( p(i)*prize(i) where i=2,n ) - 0.239 from Table HL-Siz3a
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How These are Calculated
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| Probability
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| $0 Jackpot
Constant Variable 'c'
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| $1 Million Jackpot
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| $6,977,407 Million
Jackpot Breakeven
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| $15 Million Jackpot
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Table HL-Siz2 Hot Lotto
Probability Matrix
One Ticket
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| Won | Probability
| | 5+mb | 0.000003%
| | 5 | 0.000062%
| | 4+mb | 0.000721%
| | 4 | 0.012970%
| | 3+mb | 0.029542%
| | 3 | 0.531758%
| | 2+mb | 0.393895%
| | 2 | 7.090106%
| | 1+mb | 1.920237%
| | 1 | 34.564265%
| | 0+mb | 2.918760%
| | 0 | 52.537682%
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Table HL-Siz3a Hot Lotto
$1 Single Ticket
No Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 0 | $0.000
| | 5 | 30,000 | $0.019
| | 4+mb | 3,000 | $0.022
| | 4 | 100 | $0.013
| | 3+mb | 50 | $0.015
| | 3 | 6 | $0.032
| | 2+mb | 6 | $0.024
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 3 | $0.058
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 2 | $0.058
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Per $ | $0.239
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Constant Variable 'c'
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Table HL-Siz3b Hot Lotto
$1 Single Ticket
No Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 1,000,000 | $0.091
| | 5 | 30,000 | $0.019
| | 4+mb | 3,000 | $0.022
| | 4 | 100 | $0.013
| | 3+mb | 50 | $0.015
| | 3 | 6 | $0.032
| | 2+mb | 6 | $0.024
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 3 | $0.058
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 2 | $0.058
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Per $ | $0.274
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Table HL-Siz3c Hot Lotto
$1 Single Ticket
No Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 6,977,407 | $0.239
| | 5 | 30,000 | $0.019
| | 4+mb | 3,000 | $0.022
| | 4 | 100 | $0.013
| | 3+mb | 50 | $0.015
| | 3 | 6 | $0.032
| | 2+mb | 6 | $0.024
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 3 | $0.058
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 2 | $0.058
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Per $ | $0.479
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Jackpot Breakeven
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Table HL-Siz3d Hot Lotto
$1 Single Ticket
No Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 15,000,000 | $0.515
| | 5 | 30,000 | $0.019
| | 4+mb | 3,000 | $0.022
| | 4 | 100 | $0.013
| | 3+mb | 50 | $0.015
| | 3 | 6 | $0.032
| | 2+mb | 6 | $0.024
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 3 | $0.058
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 2 | $0.058
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Per $ | $0.754
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| With Sizzler Option
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Table HL-Siz4a Hot Lotto
$2 Single Ticket
With 3x Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 0 | $0.000
| | 5 | 90,000 | $0.056
| | 4+mb | 9,000 | $0.65
| | 4 | 300 | $0.039
| | 3+mb | 150 | $0.044
| | 3 | 18 | $0.096
| | 2+mb | 18 | $0.071
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 9 | $0.173
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 6 | $0.175
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Sum | $0.718
| | Per $ | $0.359
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Constant Variable 'c'
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Table HL-Siz4b Hot Lotto
$2 Single Ticket
With 3x Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 1,000,000 | $0.091
| | 5 | 90,000 | $0.056
| | 4+mb | 9,000 | $0.65
| | 4 | 300 | $0.039
| | 3+mb | 150 | $0.044
| | 3 | 18 | $0.096
| | 2+mb | 18 | $0.071
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 9 | $0.173
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 6 | $0.175
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Sum | $0.753
| | Per $ | $0.376
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Table HL-Siz4c Hot Lotto
$2 Single Ticket
With 3x Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 6,977,407 | $0.239
| | 5 | 90,000 | $0.056
| | 4+mb | 9,000 | $0.65
| | 4 | 300 | $0.039
| | 3+mb | 150 | $0.044
| | 3 | 18 | $0.096
| | 2+mb | 18 | $0.071
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 9 | $0.173
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 6 | $0.175
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Sum | $0958
| | Per $ | $0.479
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Jackpot Breakeven
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Table HL-Siz4d Hot Lotto
$2 Single Ticket
With 3x Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 15,000,000 | $0.515
| | 5 | 90,000 | $0.056
| | 4+mb | 9,000 | $0.65
| | 4 | 300 | $0.039
| | 3+mb | 150 | $0.044
| | 3 | 18 | $0.096
| | 2+mb | 18 | $0.071
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 9 | $0.173
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 6 | $0.175
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Sum | $1.233
| | Per $ | $0.616
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