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Beginning in January 2008, Hot Lotto gives players the opportunity to increase the size of their winnings. By purchasing the Sizzler option for $1 more, all prizes except the Jackpot will be tripled.
Is this a good value for players? Should the player buy this option? Lottery Power Picks believes that the answers are both Yes and No , depending on the Jackpot size.
For this analysis, LotteryPowerPicks calculated and compared the the payout return values of buying 1 Hot Lotto Ticket against buying 1 ticket with the Sizzler Option for $2. The higher the return, the better for players.
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Table HL-Siz1 Hot Lotto Summary
Money Returned to Players per $1 Spent
| | Jackpot | $0 | $1,000,000 | $2,593,932 | $5,000,000
| | 1 Ticket | $0.237 | $0.329 | $0.474 | $0.694
| w/ Sizzler | $0.356 | $0.401 | $0.474 | $0.584
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| Breakeven
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As Table HL-Siz1 illustrates, the Sizzler Option returns more money to players when theJackpot is less than $2,593,932. When the Jackpot is greater than this amount, more money is returned to players who buy tickets without the Sizzler Option.
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Hot Lotto Sizzler Rule
Jackpot < $2,593,932: Buy Sizzler
Jackpot > $2,593,932: Do NOT Buy Sizzler
Introducing the Multiplier Jackpot Breakeven Formula
J = O*(m-2)*c
J = Breakeven Jackpot Amount - Calculated
O = Odds of Winning Jackpot - 10,939,383 given
m = multiplier - 3.0 Fixed
c = constant ( sum( p(i)*prize(i) where i=2,n ) - 0.237 from Table HL-Siz3a
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How These are Calculated
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| Probability
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| $0 Jackpot
Constant Variable 'c'
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| $1 Million Jackpot
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| $2,593,932 Million
Jackpot Breakeven
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| $5 Million Jackpot
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Table HL-Siz2 Hot Lotto
Probability Matrix
One Ticket
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| Won | Probability
| | 5+mb | 0.000009%
| | 5 | 0.000165%
| | 4+mb | 0.001554%
| | 4 | 0.027972%
| | 3+mb | 0.051283%
| | 3 | 0.923087%
| | 2+mb | 0.547014%
| | 2 | 9.846259%
| | 1+mb | 2.119681%
| | 1 | 38.154254%
| | 0+mb | 2.543617%
| | 0 | 45.785105%
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Table HL-Siz3a Hot Lotto
$1 Single Ticket
No Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 0 | $0.000
| | 5 | 10,000 | $0.016
| | 4+mb | 500 | $0.008
| | 4 | 50 | $0.014
| | 3+mb | 50 | $0.026
| | 3 | 4 | $0.037
| | 2+mb | 4 | $0.022
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 3 | $0.064
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 2 | $0.051
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Per $ | $0.237
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Constant Variable 'c'
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Table HL-Siz3b Hot Lotto
$1 Single Ticket
No Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 1,000,000 | $0.091
| | 5 | 10,000 | $0.016
| | 4+mb | 500 | $0.008
| | 4 | 50 | $0.014
| | 3+mb | 50 | $0.026
| | 3 | 4 | $0.037
| | 2+mb | 4 | $0.022
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 3 | $0.064
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 2 | $0.051
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Per $ | $0.329
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Table HL-Siz3c Hot Lotto
$1 Single Ticket
No Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 2,593,932 | $0.237
| | 5 | 10,000 | $0.016
| | 4+mb | 500 | $0.008
| | 4 | 50 | $0.014
| | 3+mb | 50 | $0.026
| | 3 | 4 | $0.037
| | 2+mb | 4 | $0.022
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 3 | $0.064
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 2 | $0.051
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Per $ | $0.474
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Jackpot Breakeven
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Table HL-Siz3d Hot Lotto
$1 Single Ticket
No Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 5,000,000 | $0.457
| | 5 | 10,000 | $0.016
| | 4+mb | 500 | $0.008
| | 4 | 50 | $0.014
| | 3+mb | 50 | $0.026
| | 3 | 4 | $0.037
| | 2+mb | 4 | $0.022
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 3 | $0.064
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 2 | $0.051
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Per $ | $0.694
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| With Sizzler Option
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Table HL-Siz4a Hot Lotto
$2 Single Ticket
With 3x Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 0 | $0.000
| | 5 | 30,000 | $0.049
| | 4+mb | 1,500 | $0.023
| | 4 | 150 | $0.042
| | 3+mb | 150 | $0.077
| | 3 | 12 | $0.111
| | 2+mb | 12 | $0.066
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 9 | $0.191
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 6 | $0.153
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Sum | $0.711
| | Per $ | $0.356
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Constant Variable 'c'
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Table HL-Siz4b Hot Lotto
$2 Single Ticket
With 3x Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 1,000,000 | $0.091
| | 5 | 30,000 | $0.049
| | 4+mb | 1,500 | $0.023
| | 4 | 150 | $0.042
| | 3+mb | 150 | $0.077
| | 3 | 12 | $0.111
| | 2+mb | 12 | $0.066
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 9 | $0.191
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 6 | $0.153
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Sum | $0.803
| | Per $ | $0.401
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Table HL-Siz4c Hot Lotto
$2 Single Ticket
With 3x Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 2,593,932 | $0.237
| | 5 | 30,000 | $0.049
| | 4+mb | 1,500 | $0.023
| | 4 | 150 | $0.042
| | 3+mb | 150 | $0.077
| | 3 | 12 | $0.111
| | 2+mb | 12 | $0.066
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 9 | $0.191
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 6 | $0.153
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Sum | $0.948
| | Per $ | $0.474
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Jackpot Breakeven
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Table HL-Siz4d Hot Lotto
$2 Single Ticket
With 3x Sizzler
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| Won | Prize | Prob
Wtd
| | 5+mb | 5,000,000 | $0.457
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| 30,000 | $0.049
| | 4+mb | 1,500 | $0.023
| | 4 | 150 | $0.042
| | 3+mb | 150 | $0.077
| | 3 | 12 | $0.111
| | 2+mb | 12 | $0.066
| | 2 |
| $0.000
| | 1+mb | 9 | $0.191
| | 1 |
| $0.000
| | 0+mb | 6 | $0.153
| | 0 |
| $0.000
| | Sum | $1.168
| | Per $ | $0.584
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Calculating the Hot Lotto Breakeven Jackpot
J = O*(m-2)*c
J = 10,939,383 *(3.0-2)*0.237
J = $2,593,932
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